Economic Consequences of the Ukraine-Russia War: Impacts on Global Trade and Financial Stability

Eshaq Mahir

Authors

Eshaq Mahir Boğaziçi Üniversitesi

Keywords:

Ukraine-Russia war, global trade, financial stability, energy crisis, sanctions, inflation, supply chains, economic fragmentation, global economy.

Abstract

The Ukraine-Russia war, which erupted in 2022, has generated profound disruptions in global trade and financial stability. This paper explores the economic consequences of the conflict, focusing on the far-reaching impacts on supply chains, international trade relations, and financial markets. The war has led to sharp increases in energy and food prices, exacerbated inflationary pressures worldwide, and prompted significant volatility in global financial markets. Moreover, the imposition of sanctions on Russia has intensified economic fragmentation, with long-term consequences for global trade and investment. By analyzing key economic sectors—energy, agriculture, and finance—this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the direct and indirect effects of the conflict on the global economy and highlights the potential long-term risks for economic stability.

References

Baldwin, R. E., & Freeman, R. B. (2022). The Ukraine-Russia war and its impact on global trade: An early assessment. World Trade Review, 21(2), 123-138. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474745622000345

Bown, C. P., & Irwin, D. A. (2022). Trade wars and their economic impact: Lessons from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 31(1), 14-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2022.2053005

International Energy Agency. (2022). The global energy crisis: Implications of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2022

OECD. (2022). The economic and financial impact of the Ukraine war. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://www.oecd.org/economy/the-economic-impact-of-the-ukraine-war.htm

Roubini, N. (2022). How the Ukraine-Russia war is reshaping global inflation. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ukraine-war-global-inflation-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-03

Sinyakov, S., & Mishra, P. (2022). Sanctions and the Russian economy: Short-term shocks and long-term prospects. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(4), 205-224. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.4.205

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. (2022). Global food insecurity amid the Ukraine-Russia conflict: A special report. FAO. https://www.fao.org/3/cb9479en/cb9479en.pdf

World Bank. (2022). Commodity markets outlook: Impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on global commodities. The World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

WTO. (2022). The war in Ukraine: Implications for global trade and supply chains. World Trade Organization. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202204_e.htm

Amadeo, K. (2022). How the Ukraine-Russia war affects the global economy. The Balance. https://www.thebalance.com/ukraine-russia-war-economic-impact-5187056

Belton, C. (2022). Putin’s war: The battle for Ukraine and the global response. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/031b0bd0-8496-11ec-bb20-8175cce81945

Guriev, S., & Tsyvinski, A. (2022). Economic consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine: Sanctions, energy, and trade disruptions. VoxEU. https://voxeu.org/article/economic-consequences-russia-s-war-ukraine

IMF. (2022). World Economic Outlook: War sets back the global recovery. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022

Ivanov, D., & Dolgui, A. (2022). Ripple effect of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global supply chains. International Journal of Production Research, 60(1), 6-9. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2068660

Kose, M. A., & Ohnsorge, F. (2022). Global economic prospects: The cost of war. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1847-6

Krugman, P. (2022). The economic implications of the Ukraine war: Is globalization in retreat? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/opinion/ukraine-russia-global-economy.html

Reuters. (2022). Ukraine war and the global economy: What’s at stake? Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/ukraine-war-global-economy-2022

Tucker, T. (2022). Inflation, war, and global economic uncertainty. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/research/inflation-war-and-global-economic-uncertainty

Zakharova, N., & Berkmen, S. P. (2022). The impact of sanctions on Russia and global spillovers. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400212346.001